Hurricane Forecast for the 2011 Season

By Vernon T., May 27, 2011, Hurricane Prep, News

Hurricane Warning flags, US Coast Guard

The hurricane experts at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University released their 2011 hurricane forecast back in December. So, as the weather warms and the June 1 season looms, let’s look at their 2011 hurricane information predictions.

This year promises to be more active than last year with 17 named storms, 9 of which will grow to become hurricanes, and 5 of these turning into major (category 3-5) hurricanes. The probability for at least one major (category 3-5) storm making landfall in the US is 73% (the 20th century average was 52%). The probability of one such storm striking the East Coast and Florida Peninsula is 49%. The probablility for the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas is 30%.

By comparison, CSU predicted an active 2010 season with 15 named storms of which 8 would be hurricanes and 4 would be major hurricanes.

The 2010 season produced 19 named storms, of which 12 became hurricanes and five became major hurricanes.

The National Weather Service, meanwhile, is expected to release their 2011 forecast in the end of May.

This year’s hurricane names list begins with Arlene and ends with Whitney.

Inspite of all the pretty graphics and dire headlines you might see, forecasters still cannot predict the time, date, and landfall location. Hurricane predictions are made using probabilities or likelihood of the possible number of storms during the season based on a century of data. Once a storm system does develop, these same factors influence its strength and intensity —making precise hurricane tracking and forecasting difficult.

Even if only one hurricane was projected for this season, hurricane preparedness is essential for families who face storm surge and high winds near the Texas coast. Hurricane Ike knocked out power from Texas electricity companies for weeks.

To learn more about this year’s forecast and safety tips for getting your family prepared to weather the storms, click here to read the full article.

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