2011 Hurricane Season Prediction Update

By Vernon T., June 29, 2011, Hurricane Prep, News

Earlier this month, the National Weather Service issued its Atlantic Hurricane Outlook. Here’s how their prediction compares with Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project’s Prediction that was released in December, 2010.

	NOAA Prediction	CSU Predicition
Number of named storms (winds 39 mph+)	12 to 18	17
Storms becoming hurricanes winds 74 mph+)	6 to 10	9
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3, 4 or 5, winds 111 mph+)	3-6	5
Landfall Probabilities	NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit.	The probability for at least one major (cat. 3-5) storm making landfall in the US is 73%

Both predict an above-normal season in the Atlantic. Both cite warmer than usual Atlantic Ocean water —just 2 degrees farenheit warmer— as being a major contributer. Also, both believe the data indicates the current La Nina pattern in the eastern Pacific is disapating through June. However, one of its lasting effects is that upper level wind shear will continue to be reduced. During La Nina years, a decrease in the vertical wind shear thousands of feet over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic lets hurricanes form and strengthen more easily.

While both predictions are made by professional meteorologists studying hours of recorded data and years of hurricane records, they are still, at best, probabilities. When a storm forms on the horizon, it’s effected by wind, water and air temperature, and other weather patterns that make accurate tracking and forecasting difficult.

Stay tuned to the Bounce Energy Hurricane Prep Center for the latest hurricane information. Check out the Bounce Energy Hurricane Tracking Chart for Emergency contact numbers for your local utility company. There’s also emergency/routine numbers for your local authorities. Get resources and tips for creating your family’s disaster plan, what to do if you decide to evacuate, how to secure your home, caring for your pets, and other information what to do before, during, and after the storm.

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