Hurricane Forecast for the 2011 Season

May 26, 2011

Hurricane Warning flags, US Coast Guard

The hurricane experts at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University released their 2011 hurricane forecast back in December. Several factors contributed to their early forecast. First, they have 58 years of data to compare and contrast. Second, they were able to narrow down climate behavior due to 2010’s El Nino pattern dissipation and the almost straight shift into a La Nina pattern by the beginning of the year. Both Pacific Ocean features have a direct effect on weather in the Atlantic. Still, another factor is that the North Atlantic has been warmer than average and this would allow hurricanes to drift further north at higher strength. So, as the weather warms and the June 1 season looms, let’s look at their 2011 hurricane information predictions.

This year promises to be more active than last year with 17 named storms, 9 of which will grow to become hurricanes, and 5 of these turning into major (category 3-5) hurricanes. The probability for at least one major (category 3-5) storm making landfall in the US is 73% (the 20th century average was 52%). The probability of one such storm striking the East Coast and Florida Peninsula is 49%. The probablility for the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas is 30%.

By comparison, CSU predicted an active 2010 season with 15 named storms of which 8 would be hurricanes and 4 would be major hurricanes.

The 2010 season produced 19 named storms, of which 12 became hurricanes and five became major hurricanes.

The National Weather Service, meanwhile, is expected to release their 2011 forecast in the end of May.

This year’s hurricane names list begins with Arlene and ends with Whitney.

Inspite of all the pretty graphics and dire headlines you might see, forecasters still cannot predict the time, date, and landfall location. Hurricane predictions are made using probabilities or likelihood of the possible number of storms during the season based on a century of data and the ongoing data collection of wind and sea currents, wind and sea temperatures, and other factors that influence storm system development. Once a storm system does develop, these same factors influence its strength and intensity — making precise hurricane tracking and forecasting difficult.

Even if only one hurricane was projected for this season, hurricane preparedness is essential for families living near the coast. That means, putting together a plan and following it when one of these storms is headed your way. All too often, the best way to handle a hurricane’s arrival is to get out of its way by heading inland. Hurricanes pack powerful sustained winds. A wind speed of 150 mph is enough to launch debris through the air like missles. Hurricane Camile (1969) hit land with winds speeds at 190 mph with gusts up to 205. Storm surge, however, is the biggest killer in coastal areas. Wind-whipped waves during Hurricane Katrina caused a storm surge 27.8 feet heigh at Pass Christian. In areas with bays and estuaries like Texas’ Gulf Coast, storm surge and flooding can be worsened when the storm’s rainfall gets bottled up by the surging tide. As in the case with Hurricane Ike, flooding knocked out power from Texas electricity companies for weeks.

A great way to stay informed during this season is to visit the Bounce Energy Hurricane Prep Center for the latest hurricane information. Check out the Bounce Energy Hurricane Tracking Chart for Emergency contact numbers for your local utility company as well as emergency/routine numbers for your local authorities. You can also find resources and tips for creating your family’s disaster plan, what to do if you decide to evacuate, how to secure your home, caring for your pets, and other information what to do before, during, and after the storm.

If the power goes out, you can follow us on Twitter and Facebook for Smartphone alerts and other news about what’s going on.

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